ผลกระทบของความต้องการเอทานอลต่อมันสำปะหลัง อ้อย กากน้ำตาล และน้ำมันแก๊สโซฮอล์ [The Impact of Ethanol Demand on Cassava Sugarcane Molasses and Gasohol]

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กัมพล เชื้อแถว

บทคัดย่อ

การวิจัยครั้งนี้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อ 1) สร้างแบบจำลองเศรษฐมิติสำหรับเอทานอล 2) พยากรณ์แนวโน้มผลกระทบของมันสำปะหลัง อ้อย กากน้ำตาล และน้ำมันแก๊สโซฮอล์ จากความต้องการเอทานอลในช่วงปี พ.ศ. 2559 - 2563 อาศัยข้อมูลอนุกรมเวลารายปี ตั้งแต่ปี พ.ศ. 2547 - 2558 โดยใช้แบบจำลองระบบสมการเกี่ยวเนื่อง ประมาณค่าสัมประสิทธิ์ด้วยวิธีกำลังสองน้อยที่สุดสามขั้น แบบจำลองมีทั้งหมด 24 สมการ ได้แก่ สมการประพฤติกรรม 22 สมการและสมการเอกลักษณ์ 2 สมการ การทดสอบความเหมาะสมของตัวแปรภายในของแบบจำลองด้วยการเปรียบเทียบข้อมูลที่พยากรณ์เหตุการณ์ในอนาคตกับข้อมูลจริง ได้แก่ ค่า RMSE กับ ค่าสถิติ U การพยากรณ์แนวโน้มในอนาคตใน 5 ปีข้างหน้า กำหนดให้ความต้องการเอทานอลเพิ่มขึ้นตามแผนส่งเสริมการพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทนและพลังงานทางเลือก 25% ระยะ 10 ปี เพิ่มขึ้นร้อยละ 5, 10, 15, 20 และ 25 ในช่วงปี พ.ศ. 2559 - 2563 พบว่า ปริมาณความต้องการเอทานอลที่เพิ่มขึ้น จะส่งผลกระทบต่อปริมาณมันสำปะหลัง อ้อย กากน้ำตาล และน้ำมันแก๊สโซฮอล์ โดยเพิ่มสูงขึ้นอย่างต่อเนื่อง แสดงให้เห็นว่ารัฐบาลควรวางแผนการและกำหนดนโยบายให้เหมาะสมกับสถานการณ์การเปลี่ยนแปลงในอนาคตของเนื้อที่เก็บเกี่ยวมันสำปะหลัง เนื้อที่เก็บเกี่ยวอ้อย อุปสงค์กากน้ำตาล อุปสงค์น้ำมันแก๊สโซฮอล์ E10_95, E20_95 และ E 85_95 ซึ่งมีค่าเฉลี่ยเพิ่มขึ้นร้อยละ 2.40, 1.75, 4.82, 8.00, 22.24 และ 5.10 ตามลำดับ

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