การคาดการณ์วันฝนตกเพื่อประเมินความล่าช้าของแผนงานก่อสร้างทาง Forecasting of Raining Day Effecting Delay of Road Construction

Abstract

This research present a methodology for forecasting how rainy weather can delay road construction projects, The final result provided by this method is a table showing the probable number of non-working days based on the particular project’s start and end date. Examples of these results are presented for three case studies in Phitsanulok City. Historical data on precipitation from the past sixty-three years were collected from the surrounding rain gauge stations and was analysed by using statistical techniques. The Semiparametric Weather Generator was used as a tool for modeling, and generating probable number of non-working days, then were applied into a probable number of non-working days table for the three case studies. The project duration according to the baseline schedule, the actual schedule incorporating actual rainy days, and the expected schedule incorporating probable number of non-working days were compared. The results showed that the methodology for forecasting rainy days by using the probable number of non-working days table based on the particular project’s start and end date can be used to forecast delays in road construction projects, with a ± 2 day of Mean Absolute Error, and 6.37 percent of Bias Error consideration.